The US dollar and crude oil fell, with most metals declining. LME tin dropped by over 5%, while SHFE tin, LME zinc, coking coal, coke, and iron ore led the declines. [Overnight Market]

SMM April 9 News:

Metal Market:

Overnight, base metals in the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE tin down 2.97%, SHFE copper down 1.25%, SHFE nickel down 0.37%, SHFE lead down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum down 1.11%, and SHFE zinc down 1.88%. Additionally, alumina fell 1.19%.

Overnight, ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore down 2.68%, stainless steel down 1.05%, rebar down 1.12%, and HRC down 1.2%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.93%, and coke fell 2.35%.

Overnight, LME metals nearly all fell, with LME copper down 1.65%, LME zinc down 2.35%, LME tin down 5.17%, LME lead flat at $1,870/mt, LME aluminum down 1.39%, and LME nickel down 1.49%.

Overnight in the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 0.83%, and COMEX silver rose 0.49%. SHFE gold rose 0.58%, and SHFE silver rose 0.39%.

As of 8:18 AM on April 9, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic:

[SASAC Rarely Strongly Protects the Market During Trading Hours, Over 70 Central State-Owned Enterprises Release Positive News, Public Funds Say China's Capital Market Stabilization Mechanism Enters "2.0 Era"] On April 8, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) spoke during trading hours, expressing support for central state-owned enterprises and their listed companies to increase buybacks. On April 8, SASAC stated that it would fully support and promote central state-owned enterprises and their listed companies to take proactive actions, continuously increase the intensity of share buybacks, effectively safeguard the rights and interests of all shareholders, continuously consolidate market confidence in listed companies, strive to enhance company value, and fully demonstrate the responsibility of central state-owned enterprises. Subsequently, local state-owned asset platforms also spoke out. Three major state-owned asset platforms in Shanghai issued statements, firmly optimistic about the development prospects of China's capital market. On April 8, a wave of intensive policies emerged, starting with the morning release of important measures by the People's Bank of China, the Financial Supervisory Authority, and Central Huijin Company. 》Click to view details [NDRC Price Cost and Certification Center Conducts Special Survey on NEV and Related Industries in Guangdong and Sichuan]

Comrade Yang Dong, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Cost and Certification Center, led a team to Guangdong and Sichuan provinces to conduct a special survey on the price situation of the NEV and power battery industries. The research team visited Shenzhen BYD Co., Ltd., EVE Energy Co., Ltd., and GAC Aion NEV Co., Ltd., to understand the situation of the "price war" in the NEV field since 2023, and listened to relevant opinions and suggestions from enterprises on rectifying "cut-throat competition" in prices and promoting high-quality development of the industry. (Cailian Press) [This Year's Trade-in Policy Drives Home Appliance Sales of 124.74 Billion Yuan]

Since the beginning of this year, the trade-in policy for consumer goods has driven the quality upgrade of bulk consumption, with sales of home appliance products continuing to grow. The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that from the beginning of the year to 00:00 on April 8, consumers purchased 35.709 million units of 12 major categories of home appliances through the trade-in policy, driving sales of 124.74 billion yuan. Currently, various regions have successively introduced policies to expand consumption, intensifying support for home appliance and home trade-ins, and releasing residents' consumption potential through multi-level subsidies from national, municipal, and enterprise sources. US Dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.51% to 102.98. The market is currently waiting for the latest policy meeting minutes to be released by the US Fed on Wednesday for more clues on the path of interest rate cuts. Traders are also waiting for the US Consumer Price Index to be released on Thursday and the Producer Price Index on Friday for clues on the direction of US Fed interest rates. Traders believe there is about a 40% chance of a US Fed rate cut in May. According to the prices of US short-term interest rate futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, traders believe there is a 56% chance of a US Fed rate cut in May, up from 40% earlier in the day. They expect at least four more rate cuts by the end of this year.

Other Currencies:

Acting German Finance Minister Jörg Kukies said on the evening of April 7 that if US President Trump does not change his tariff policy, German exports to the US will face huge losses, and the risk of a US economic recession is also increasing. There are no winners in this trade conflict. From the reactions of US companies, it can be seen that the risk of a US economic recession is also increasing, which will also reduce the space for the US government to fulfill its tax cut commitments. (Cailian Press)

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that due to the impact of US tariffs, uncertainty in domestic and overseas economies is intensifying. The Japanese government and the ruling coalition are considering formulating a supplementary budget to deal with US tariffs and long-term inflation. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may instruct officials to formulate a budget this month and strive to pass it during this parliamentary session. The Japanese government is considering measures to stimulate domestic demand after the US imposes auto tariffs. It may strengthen financial support for companies that do not lay off employees. In terms of price relief measures, the Japanese government is considering restoring electricity and natural gas subsidies. Japan may also supplement reserve funds. (Cailian Press)

Data:

Today, New Zealand's official cash rate decision for April 9, the final value of the US February wholesale inventory month-on-month rate, and the US April IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a dialogue event titled "Fed Economic Outlook and Work"; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment report; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr will hold a monetary policy press conference; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech; US reciprocal tariffs will officially take effect.

Crude Oil:

Overnight, both oil futures fell, with US oil down 4.07% and Brent oil down 4.03%. Market concerns about a global economic recession weighed on oil prices. StoneX's market strategy director Alex Hodes said in a report that US trade policy has led to a global economic recession scenario, raising concerns about a decline in energy demand. Goldman Sachs predicts that under different scenarios, by December 2025, Brent and US crude oil prices will be $62 and $58 per barrel, respectively, and a year later, $55 and $51 per barrel, respectively.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data on Tuesday showing that US commercial crude and distillate inventories fell last week, while gasoline inventories rose. Data showed that as of the week ending April 4, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels; gasoline inventories increased by 210,000 barrels; and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels. A survey released on Tuesday showed that analysts on average expected US crude oil inventories to increase by 1.4 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories to decrease by 1.5 million barrels, and distillate inventories to increase by 300,000 barrels; refinery capacity utilization is expected to increase by about 0.5 percentage points. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the official US crude oil inventory weekly report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)